Media Predictions for 2026 with Evan Shapiro

Shifting Media Metrics

• 💡 Fandom and engagement are becoming more crucial than traditional scale and reach metrics for marketers and advertisers.
• 🎯 Smaller, highly engaged audiences are proving more effective for advertisers than simply large subscriber counts, as seen with creators like Amelia Dimoldenberg and Sean Evans.
• 📈 The "affinity economy" emphasizes true quality content and genuine human interaction over bot-driven metrics.

Brands as Content Creators

• 🚀 Major brands like Under Armour, Procter & Gamble, and L'Oreal are launching their own content channels and production companies.
• 💰 This represents a shift from renting influencers to converting ad spend into creating proprietary entertainment channels, following models like Barbie and LEGO.
• 🛠️ Brands are increasingly involving creators in product development and lifestyle branding, as exemplified by McDonald's menu collaborations.

Traditional Media's Platform Embrace

• 📺 Traditional media companies, including Disney, Universal, and Warner Brothers, are predicted to move beyond promotional "brochureware" on platforms like YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok.
• ✅ They will start creating real, dedicated content for these platforms in 2026, similar to how Disney eventually launched Disney+ after initial resistance.
• 💡 Disney's $1.5 billion investment in OpenAI and its deal with Sora indicate a strategic shift towards embracing user-generated content and AI for their IP.

AI's Practical Evolution

• 💥 The "AI bubble will burst" in 2026, as the hype around AI creating movies, commercials, or scripts deflates.
• ⚙️ AI's true value lies in "boring" but crucial backend improvements such as targeting, optimization, and efficiency, rather than replacing creative talent.
• 🤖 It will eliminate "silly busy work" jobs in areas like coding and optimization, but not creative roles like scriptwriters or podcasters.

The Future of Advertising

• 🛍️ Retail media networks are in their early stages but are set for massive growth, with Walmart's integration of Vizio poised to make it the second-largest network after Amazon.
• 📱 Instagram and TikTok are predicted to launch CTV platforms in 2026, leveraging short-form content and expanding their advertising reach to television.
• 🗳️ A $2.5 billion political advertising ecosystem will drive hyper-local, outcome-based ads on CTV, fundamentally transforming addressable TV advertising.
• 📈 Branded content deals on YouTube are exploding, and dynamic insertion for these deals in 2026 will make them significantly more scalable and accelerate growth.