Matt Duss on Trump's Foreign Policy: Tariffs, Middle East, and Ukraine

Trump's Trade War and Global Order

• 📈 Trump's approach to tariffs has reintroduced them as a tool, moving beyond a focus on China to a broader trade war based on trade imbalances.
• ❓ There's a lack of a clear theory of the case beyond using tariffs as a blunt instrument for bilateral deals, leading to uncertainty about the ultimate goals.
• 💡 The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), aimed at isolating China, has been discarded, hindering the ability to build alliances against China's economic growth.
• 🌍 The current approach is seen as a massive restructuring of the US-led global trade order, with concerns about its long-term implications.

Middle East Conflicts and Diplomacy

• 🇾🇪 The bombardment of Yemen by the US has been ongoing for weeks with little apparent effect, highlighting the ineffectiveness of air campaigns against entrenched forces.
• 🇮🇱 Israel's actions in Gaza are described as unabashed, with a lack of international pressure and a disregard for civilian casualties and aid delivery.
• 🤝 Despite past actions, Trump has expressed interest in direct talks with Iran to negotiate a new nuclear deal, a principle supported as the way to address Iran's nuclear program.
• ⚠️ The weakening of Iran due to regional shifts and US support for Israel makes a nuclear deterrent appear more attractive to Iran, increasing the risk.

Ukraine Conflict and US Policy

• 🇺🇦 Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine quickly, but discussions with Zelenskyy have been contentious, with Vance provoking Zelenskyy.
• 🤝 Zelenskyy has signaled readiness to negotiate, aiming to put the onus back on Putin and Russia, who have imposed increasingly bizarre conditions for talks.
• 🇨🇳 The capture of Chinese soldiers in Ukraine is seen as a move by Zelenskyy to pressure China to play a less destructive role, despite China's support for Russia.
• ❓ The presence of Chinese soldiers, potentially mercenaries, in Ukraine raises questions about Russia's need for fighters and China's involvement.

Shifting Global Alliances

• 🌐 The US is moving away from multilateralism towards an aggressive assertion of American unilateralism on multiple fronts, including trade and military action.
• 💰 Trump's view is that the US deserves more tribute from allies due to its power, leading to a transactional approach to foreign policy.
• 🔄 Countries are beginning to consider alternative alliances and systems that do not heavily rely on US leadership, signaling a potential shift in the global order.
• 📉 The Treasury bond market may reflect this shift, with investors potentially seeking different avenues for security and prosperity.