Matt Duss on Putin's Peace Stance and Trump's Ukraine Diplomacy Shifts

Russia's Escalated Aerial Attacks on Ukraine

• 🚀 Russia launched its largest aerial attack since the 2022 invasion, firing a record 741 drones and missiles, primarily targeting Lutsk in western Ukraine.
• ⚠️ The barrage prompted Poland to activate its air defenses and scramble fighter jets.

Trump's Shifting Ukraine Policy

• 🔄 President Trump has shown a series of U-turns on Ukraine policy, recently criticizing Vladimir Putin after previously promising to broker an easy peace deal.
• 💡 Trump is reportedly learning that brokering peace is "not that easy", a sentiment echoed by Matt Duss.
• ❓ The Pentagon's pause on arm shipments to Ukraine, authorized by Defense Secretary Pete Hgsth without informing the White House, highlights a chaotic and disorganized policy process.

Putin's Unchanged War Aims

• 🎯 Matt Duss emphasizes that Vladimir Putin is not interested in a peace deal and his core interests have not changed.
• 🇷🇺 Putin's goals remain to continue the war on Ukraine, remove its independence, and absorb it into Russia's imperium.
• ⚖️ Without a change in Putin's objectives, negotiating a ceasefire or a durable peace deal is difficult.

International Court Rulings Against Russia

• ⚖️ The European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg found Moscow responsible for human rights abuses in Ukraine.
• ✈️ Russia was also ruled responsible for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014, which resulted in 298 fatalities.

Challenges for Trump's Diplomacy

• 🤝 Trump's past actions, including alienating allies and potentially the global south, make it difficult for him to establish a credible peace process.
• 🌍 While working through BRICS countries like Brazil could be an option for negotiation, Trump's current approach may hinder this.