Mark N. Katz on Trump's Sanctions, Putin's Strategy, and China's Role in Ukraine

Sanctions and Military Support

• 💡 Sanctions alone are unlikely to alter Vladimir Putin's behavior, as he has shown willingness to continue his course of action despite Western sanctions.
• ⚠️ Many nations continue to trade with Russia, diminishing the impact of sanctions.
• 🚀 The primary leverage Trump could wield is increasing military support for Ukraine.

Trump's Ultimatum and Putin's Calculations

• 🎯 Trump's reduced deadline of 10 days for a ceasefire is seen as an attempt to cut through Putin's tendency to delay.
• 🧠 Trump appears to have learned that Putin is not easily swayed by offers that don't meet his expansive demands.
• 📈 Putin believes he has the advantage, with Russian forces slowly gaining ground and a willingness to make sacrifices that Western governments may not.
• 👑 Putin's goal extends beyond territory; he aims to change the international order in Europe and believes he can achieve this.

China's Stance and Influence

• 🇨🇳 China cannot afford to see Russia lose the war, fearing increased US attention on China if Russia is weakened.
• 🤝 China's primary interest is preventing Russia's collapse, but they may not want Russia to win outright.
• 💬 China is in a unique position to influence the end of the war, but their strategy of maintaining close ties with both Russia and Europe presents an intellectual block.
• 📉 A stronger Russia does not benefit China, particularly given their significant trade relationship with Europe.

Russia's Relations with Iran and North Korea

• 🎭 Russia's lack of support for Iran during Israeli and US attacks is typical behavior, with Russia offering little in return for assistance.
• ☢️ Russia does not want to see the Iranian regime collapse but also does not want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, benefiting from US and Israeli actions.
• 🇰🇵 The presence of North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine, despite a mutual defense pact, suggests Russia may not reciprocate in kind, especially while consumed by the Ukraine war.

The Future of the Conflict

• ⏳ The conflict is likely to continue for months, if not years, with no clear end in sight.
• 💥 A resolution might require multiple simultaneous crises within Russia, similar to the collapse of the Soviet Union, such as internal uprisings or army collapse.
• 📉 Russian generals may eventually conclude that Putin's actions are harmful to Russia and the army itself.