Mark Galeotti on Trump, Ukraine, and the Uncomfortable Realities of Peace

The Trump-Zelensky Meeting Dynamics

• 🎯 The meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky is framed as a potentially momentous event, with European leaders also present to ensure Zelensky isn't "bullied."
• 🤝 Trump's approach is described as unconventional, prioritizing direct presidential meetings to forge deals.
• ⏱️ While Trump desires a swift resolution, the White House anticipates a more protracted process, possibly leading to a Trump-Putin-Zelensky summit.

Security Guarantees and Deterrence

• ⚠️ The core issue is the nature of security guarantees for Ukraine, especially with Russia ruling out NATO involvement.
• 🛡️ The Budapest Accord is clarified as not offering security guarantees, but rather a commitment not to attack, a promise Russia has broken.
• 💡 True deterrence is seen in making Ukraine a "tough nut" to crack, requiring significant Western investment in its defense capabilities rather than relying on abstract promises.

Russia's Position and Potential Outcomes

• ⚖️ From Putin's perspective, he is winning by outlasting Ukraine, with his primary concession being a willingness to stop further advances.
• 💔 The potential for a "mutilated victory" for Ukraine involves ceding territory, which is a bitter pill due to the sacrifices made.
• 🇪🇺 A key factor for Ukraine's future is the prospect of becoming a sovereign, democratic, stable, and prosperous country, potentially joining the EU, which would represent a defeat for Putin.

Trump's Role and Realism

• 🇺🇸 Trump is credited with being willing to use American power and speak the unspoken realities, such as the unlikelihood of NATO membership for Ukraine.
• 🗣️ He is seen as acknowledging the current lack of a clear theory of victory for Ukraine to regain its territory, pushing for a discussion of realities over cozy political mantras.
• 🤝 While controversial, Trump's willingness to engage in these difficult conversations is acknowledged as potentially leading to a more realistic path forward.

The Cost of Peace and Western Commitment

• 💰 The question of Western and European willingness to financially support a peaceful Ukraine, through reconstruction and subsidies, is paramount.
• 🔄 The argument is made that investing in building a peaceful Ukraine could be more beneficial long-term than continuing to fund a protracted war.
• 🌍 The uncomfortable reality is that an "ugly deal" may be necessary to make an aggressor stand down, with European leaders seeking concrete security assurances from the US.