Mark Galeotti on Putin's 'Victim Theatre' After Alleged Residence Attack

Alleged Attack on Putin's Residence

• 🔍 No evidence has been presented to support Russia's claim of a drone attack on Putin's residence, with Russian media instead ramping up conspiracy theories.
• ⚠️ Russia has suggested a potential British connection, a classic pattern when things go wrong.
• 🇺🇦 Ukrainians deny involvement, and most European commentators agree with the denial.

Legitimate Target Debate

• 🎯 While Ukrainians deny involvement, the question arises whether Putin, as commander-in-chief of the invading army, would be a legitimate target.
• ⚖️ There's an unspoken international etiquette against targeting leaders, to avoid retaliatory attacks.
• 💥 Russia previously attempted to assassinate Zelenskyy, but has not attacked his residence or parliament, maintaining a balance of terror.

Consequences of Putin's Death

• 🕊️ If Putin dies peacefully, a transition of power to less zealous, kleptocratic successors might occur.
• 💀 If he is killed, the ensuing anger and chaos could lead to a more dangerous, younger, and potentially smarter leader emerging.
• 🇷🇺 This could result in Russia mobilizing more resources and force into the war, creating a worse situation for Ukraine.

Russia's Performance Theatre

• 🎭 Russia is constantly working on the 'theatre of performance' to shape narratives, potentially to win over figures like Trump and portray themselves as indignant victims.
• 🌍 International reactions, such as from India's Narendra Modi, are being used to amplify this narrative.
• 📉 Despite the claims, Russia is unlikely to change its negotiating position.

Broader Context of the War

• ⚡ The alleged attack could be in keeping with sabotage operations, similar to a recent car bomb that killed a lieutenant general.
• 🇺🇸 The situation unfolds alongside diplomatic efforts, including Zelenskyy's meeting with Trump and ongoing US diplomacy with Israel regarding Gaza.
• 🎯 Attacks deep inside Russia, while risky for Ukraine, may be the only way to strike a message home, especially if the US appears more sensitive to Russia's demands.