Mark Galeotti on Putin-Trump Meeting, Ukraine Ceasefire, and Potential Concessions

Significance of the Putin-Trump Meeting

• 🤝 The meeting between President Trump and President Putin is significant, though not expected to result in immediate peace.
• 💡 Putin is aware he must offer Trump a concession, however limited, to avoid disappointing him by meeting empty-handed.

Prospects for a Trilateral Meeting

• 🇺🇦 A trilateral meeting involving Putin, Trump, and Zelenskyy is considered less plausible.
• 🇷🇺 Russia's official stance questions Zelenskyy's legitimacy due to his expired term, complicating direct negotiations.
• 🎯 Putin would likely only agree to a trilateral meeting if he was assured in advance that Zelenskyy would accept the proposed deal.

Potential Peace Deal Framework

• 🗺️ The Russian demand for Ukraine to withdraw from illegally annexed regions before a ceasefire is likely a negotiating position.
• 🔑 A potential Russian-backed deal might involve them keeping annexed territories, receiving sanctions relief, and Ukraine being barred from NATO membership.
• 🇪🇺 Interestingly, Russia seems less concerned about Ukraine's potential EU membership.
• 📉 Current terms are seen as too demanding for Zelenskyy to accept, making a compromise unlikely.

Enforcement and Ceasefire Realities

• 🛡️ Enforcement of any deal is a major challenge, with Russia unlikely to accept a Western-led coalition of troops.
• 🌍 A UN-driven force or involvement from neutral countries like Brazil could theoretically be options, but are not currently feasible.
• 🕊️ The most optimistic scenario is a temporary ceasefire to halt long-range missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, rather than a long-term peace agreement.

Trump's Diplomatic Approach

• 📢 Trump's suggestion of a trilateral meeting reflects his style of acting as if the bulk of the work is done.
• 🇺🇦 Ukraine sees Trump's pressure tactics as yielding results, making Russia more inclined to consider a ceasefire.
• ⚠️ Ukraine and the US are wary of potential deception in the details of any agreement.
• 🇷🇺 Russian sources suggest Putin may not yield to Trump's sanctions ultimatum, believing he is winning the war.