Mark Galeotti on Putin, Trump, and the Ukraine Resources Deal

The "Fantasy Deal" and Moscow's Reaction

• 💡 A recent "monstrously colonial type of deal" involving Ukrainian resources has rattled Moscow, indicating Putin's belief in his ability to "wrangle" Trump has diminished.
• 🎯 This deal, built on the exploitation of Ukrainian resources post-war, is seen as a fantasy because it's unrealistic during ongoing conflict.
• 🔑 The deal gives the US rights to Ukrainian resources, potentially squeezing out other countries like Britain and the EU.

Geopolitical Worldviews of Putin and Trump

• 🌍 Both Putin and Trump share a 19th-century sense of geopolitics, where powerful nations dictate terms to weaker ones.
• 🗺️ Putin views the world as divided between those who give and take orders, seeing Ukraine's Western alignment as a loss for Russia.
• 💥 Trump, while less formal, also believes might makes right, expecting smaller nations to adhere to US influence.

Ukraine's Shifting Strategy with Trump

• 🤝 The infamous Oval Office meeting was necessary for Trump to see Zelensky was not a supplicant and for Ukraine to understand the need for a different political approach with the Trump White House.
• 💰 Ukrainians are pitching themselves as an economic vassal of the United States, shifting Trump's calculus from a territorial dispute to a business opportunity.
• 📈 Zelensky's administration has been adept at manipulating Western countries to gain support.

Russian Media and the Resources Deal

• 📰 The Russian press, largely state-influenced, has adopted a common line ironically stating the deal is bad for Ukraine.
• ⚠️ This reaction suggests the deal has rattled Moscow, particularly because it frames Ukraine in balance sheet terms as a potential profit line for Trump.

Trump's Past Ceasefire Offer to Putin

• 🎁 Trump offered a ceasefire deal that would have recognized Crimea as Russian, lifted sanctions, and allowed Ukraine to join the EU but not NATO.
• 🤔 Putin surprisingly did not accept this deal, likely due to overestimating his ability to negotiate a better outcome and a belief that he could "wrangle" Trump.
• 📉 The chances of a ceasefire in the immediate future are considered slender, as the US has stated it will no longer actively negotiate such deals.

Uncertainty of Future US Support for Ukraine

• ❓ The major uncertainty is the extent of future US support, including intelligence, military, and financial aid, especially if Trump decides Putin has taken advantage of him.
• 🇺🇸 Despite some voices advocating for US withdrawal, there's a possibility that America will continue supporting Ukraine at some level, influenced by Zelensky's engagement and Putin's lack of recent overtures.
• 🤷 The ultimate direction of US policy remains unpredictable due to Trump's lack of long-term strategic plans.