Mark Galeotti on Europe's 'War' with Russia and Ukraine Conflict Escalation

Defining 'War' in the 21st Century

• 💬 The concept of 'war' needs a new vocabulary, as Russia and the West engage in conflict beyond traditional military confrontation.
• 🌐 While Russia claims the West is at war with them, this doesn't necessarily imply imminent missile or soldier attacks, but rather a 21st-century conflict involving cyber and intelligence attacks.
• 🤝 Hostile states have always engaged in espionage and political interference, but interconnectedness amplifies the pervasiveness and speed of these actions.

Risk of Escalation and Miscalculation

• ⚠️ The presence of over 90% of Russia's field force in Ukraine, coupled with NATO's military power, makes direct confrontation undesirable for Putin.
• ⚡ However, increased Russian recklessness heightens the chance of miscalculation that could spiral upwards.
• 💥 Despite the risk of incidents like a downed drone or plane, a direct NATO-Russia confrontation leading to thermonuclear Armageddon is considered highly unlikely due to the nuclear deterrent.

The Stalemate in Ukraine

• 🇺🇦 The war in Ukraine is characterized by a brutal war of attrition, with recent attacks in Kyiv highlighting the ongoing conflict.
• 🇺🇸 American-built weapons, paid for by Europeans, are being used by Ukrainians, indicating the current limits of US support.
• 🕊️ Unless a significant