Mark Galeotti on Deterring Putin: Politics, Perception, and the War's Aftermath

The Battle for Deterrence

• 🧠 Deterrence is primarily a psychological battle waged within Putin's mind, focusing on shaping his perceptions of Europe's resolve and capability.
• 🎯 While military spending on tanks and missiles is a necessary precondition, the political and perceptual aspects of deterrence are often overlooked.
• ⚠️ Russia's current threat is not a direct invasion due to its forces being mired in Ukraine, but rather sub-threshold activities like sabotage, disinformation, and political warfare.

NATO's Defense Spending and Unity

• 📉 NATO members are struggling to meet defense spending commitments, with the actual expenditure often being less than the publicized figures.
• 🗣️ Rhetoric from NATO leaders about an immediate threat from Russia is contrasted with the final communiqué, which labeled Russia a long-term threat.
• 🇺🇸 The pursuit of European strategic autonomy is complicated by dependence on a potentially volatile America, with little meaningful progress seen.

Russia's Internal Adaptations

• 🔒 The Kremlin has learned from past events, like the Wagner mutiny, by tightening control over private armies and mercenary groups.
• 🕵️ The Federal Security Service (FSB) has expanded its surveillance of military and militia forces to prevent internal dissent or coups.
• ⚖️ Putin appears hostage to his own security apparatus, unable to conduct purges that could disrupt internal stability amidst quiet discontent about the war.

Long-Term Societal Impact on Russia

• 🎖️ A significant portion of the Russian population has experienced the war, with projections indicating a large number will suffer from Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).
• 🤕 Returning soldiers, many with physical and mental injuries, will face a system ill-equipped to handle their needs, potentially leading to increased crime and a larger black market for guns.
• 📈 The potential for returning veterans to become a destabilizing force, feeling angry and blaming the Kremlin, might lead Putin to prolong the war as a risk-averse strategy.