Mark Esper on Iran's Strait of Hormuz Threat, Missing Uranium, and US Military Response

US Airstrikes on Iranian Facilities

• 🚀 The US executed a successful, stealth operation named "Midnight Hammer," dropping GBU-57 bombs and launching TAMs from submarines on Iranian nuclear facilities.
• 🎯 The operation was executed with unimpeded access, resulting in no US casualties, highlighting the skill and professionalism of the US military.
• 🔍 A critical next step is a battle damage assessment, which may require inspectors on the ground for complete information.

Potential Iranian Retaliation

• ⚠️ Iran could retaliate through Shia militia groups in Iraq targeting US personnel, launching ballistic missiles at US forces in the Middle East, or conducting attacks within the US and globally.
• 🚢 While less likely, Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping lane.
• ⚖️ Retaliation will likely be calibrated to satisfy domestic demands without provoking a disproportionately strong US response.

Nuclear Ambitions and Missing Uranium

• ⚛️ Concerns remain about Iran's nuclear program, particularly the 900 lbs of 60% enriched uranium that is unaccounted for and could be used for multiple nuclear weapons.
• ⏳ Even if Iranian nuclear infrastructure was destroyed, it is likely a matter of years, not months, before they can rebuild.
• 🔑 A fundamental change in the regime's ambitions or the regime itself is needed to permanently curb its nuclear aspirations.

Deterrence and US Military Willingness

• ⚡ Deterrence relies on both capability and will, with the US military's capability long understood.
• 💥 President Trump's willingness to take decisive action, despite domestic opposition, has likely captured the attention of nations like Russia and China.

Securing the Strait of Hormuz

• 🚢 If Iran attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz or escalates actions, the US should consider neutralizing Iranian naval assets that threaten shipping.
• 💥 This could include targeting mine layers, swarm boats, and coastal missile batteries to remove Iran's ability to obstruct maritime traffic.

Future US Involvement

• 🤔 The extent of future US involvement is dependent on Iran's response.
• 🤝 President Trump's inclination is to avoid prolonged wars, suggesting a potential step back if Iran's retaliation is minimal, and urging negotiations that include a return to the non-proliferation regime.