Mark Carney on Global Rupture: Middle Powers Must Act Together

The Era of Great Power Rivalry

• ⚠️ The world is entering an era of great power rivalry, where the rules-based international order is fading, and the strong dictate terms.
• 💡 The tendency to accommodate and signal compliance to avoid trouble is ineffective and unsustainable.
• 🎭 The system persists not just through force, but through ordinary people participating in rituals they know to be false, a concept termed "living within a lie" by Vaclav Havel.

The Breakdown of the Rules-Based Order

• 🌍 For decades, countries like Canada benefited from a rules-based international order, enabling values-based foreign policies.
• 📉 This order is no longer functional, as great powers increasingly weaponize economic integration through tariffs, coercion, and exploiting supply chains.
• 🏛️ Multilateral institutions like the WTO and UN are under threat, forcing middle powers to seek greater strategic autonomy.

Canada's Response: Value-Based Realism

• 🇨🇦 Canada is shifting its strategic posture towards value-based realism, aiming to be both principled and pragmatic.
• 🔑 This involves recognizing the world as it is, calibrating relationships based on values, and prioritizing broad engagement.
• 📈 Canada is building its strength domestically through tax cuts, investment in energy, AI, and critical minerals, and doubling defense spending.
• 🤝 Internationally, Canada is diversifying its partnerships through new trade and security deals, and forming variable geometry coalitions for specific issues.

The Path Forward for Middle Powers

• 🛡️ A world of fortresses will be poorer and more fragile; collective investments in resilience are more cost-effective than individual fortresses.
• 🌐 Middle powers must act together, as bilateral negotiations with hegemons lead to weakness and subordination.
• 🗣️ It is crucial to name reality, stop invoking a defunct rules-based order, and apply standards consistently to allies and rivals alike.
• 🏠 Building a strong domestic economy and diversifying internationally are material foundations for an honest foreign policy, reducing vulnerability to retaliation.

Canada's Strengths and Vision

• 🌟 Canada possesses significant strengths: energy superpower status, critical mineral reserves, an educated population, strong pension funds, and fiscal capacity.
• 🇨🇦 As a stable, pluralistic, and reliable partner, Canada is committed to building a better, stronger, and more just world from the current fractures.
• 🤝 Canada's path is to stop pretending, name reality, build strength at home, and act together, inviting other countries to join.