Marc Elias on Trump's Unconstitutional Census Edict and Election Integrity

Trump's Unconstitutional Census Proposal

• 🏛️ Donald Trump has issued an edict instructing the Department of Commerce to conduct a new census, excluding individuals in the country illegally.
• 📜 This action directly contradicts the US Constitution, specifically Article One, which mandates the enumeration of all persons regardless of immigration status.
• ❓ Elias suggests Trump's actions stem from ignorance, disregard for the Constitution, or a reaction to media, highlighting the conflict between constitutional requirements and Trump's directive.

Constitutional Census Requirements

• 👥 The Constitution requires an enumeration of "whole persons", interpreted to mean everyone, irrespective of their immigration status.
• ⏳ The census is constitutionally mandated to occur every 10 years, with the last one in 2020 and the next scheduled for 2030.
• 🗓️ Trump's proposal to conduct a census mid-cycle and tie it to the 2024 election results is seen as a violation of these established constitutional processes.

Strategic Avenues for Election Manipulation

• 🗺️ Trump's actions are viewed as a pattern to ensure Republican control of the House in 2024 and beyond, potentially through gerrymandering and redistricting.
• 📊 Excluding undocumented immigrants from the census could lead to a reapportionment of congressional seats, reducing representation for Democratic-leaning states like California and shifting power to Republican states.
• 🎯 This strategy aims to secure Republican dominance in Congress, which is deemed crucial for future elections, including the 2028 presidential election, for purposes like certification and blocking votes.

Laying Groundwork for Election Denial

• ⏳ Trump is perceived as laying the groundwork to contest future elections, particularly the 2026 midterms, by creating a pretext for claims of fraud and cheating.
• 🔍 The discussion links Trump's census proposal to the Department of Justice's collection of individual voter data, suggesting a broader effort to gather information for future election denial narratives.
• 🗣️ This tactic involves grooming supporters to believe fabricated claims of irregularities, using defeats to sow chaos and delegitimize election outcomes.

Legal Standing and Democratic Norms

• ⚖️ Legally, Trump's census proposal is expected to fail in the courts, similar to his stance on birthright citizenship, as both are clear violations of constitutional text and Supreme Court precedent.
• ⚠️ The danger lies not in legal success but in Trump's ability to manipulate public perception, potentially inciting half the US population into believing untrue narratives, especially post-January 6th.
• 🇺🇸 The core issue is Trump's disregard for the rule of law and democratic norms, undermining free and fair elections and the peaceful transition of power, which has been a hallmark of American democracy for over 200 years.