Malcolm Nance on Trump's Venezuela Policy: A Ground War Worse Than Afghanistan

US Seizure of Sanctioned Oil Tanker

• 🚢 A sanctioned oil tanker, the Skipper, registered in Coros and operating as part of Iran's shadow fleet, was seized off the coast of Venezuela.
• 💡 The vessel has been sanctioned since 2022 for shipping oil for Iran, and was associated with operations supporting Hezbollah.
• 🎯 The seizure is seen as a significant escalation of tensions between the US and Venezuela, with Donald Trump characterizing the tanker as a "terror tanker."

Trump Administration's Venezuela Strategy

• ⛽ The US policy against Venezuela, particularly targeting Nicolás Maduro, has been in place since 2017 and appears to be primarily driven by the acquisition of Venezuela's vast crude oil reserves.
• 💊 The administration has redefined Maduro as a "narco terrorist," a designation Nance argues is not supported by intelligence, as most Venezuelan drugs go to Europe, not the US.
• ⚖️ Nance criticizes the administration's redefinition of drug payloads as "weapons systems" to provide legal cover for lethal actions, calling them extrajudicial killings without due process.

Potential for Ground Conflict

• ⚠️ Nance warns that a ground war in Venezuela would be disastrous, stating that the US does not fare well against adversaries fighting in jungle terrain.
• 💥 He predicts that any US military engagement, even with cruise missiles and disabling air defenses, would lead to a protracted conflict that would make the war in Afghanistan look like child's play.
• ⚔️ He notes that Venezuela has a large armed force and militia, and that Maduro could resort to guerrilla warfare if the capital, Caracas, were taken.

Political Motivations and Global Strategy

• 🌎 The actions are framed within a broader US strategy that Nance describes as a "weird version of the Monroe Doctrine," focusing influence on the Western Hemisphere while potentially retracting from global obligations.
• 💰 The seizure and policy appear to be politically motivated, coinciding with Venezuelan opposition politician María Corina Machado receiving the Nobel Prize, though Machado has expressed support for overthrowing the government.