Luuk van Middelaar on Europe's Defense, AI, and the Shifting Global Order

A Pivotal Moment for Europe

• 🗓️ 2025 is posited as a potential turning point in European and world history, comparable to 1989 (end of the Cold War) or 1945 (end of WWII).
• 💥 Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked the end of the post-Cold War era, a period characterized by the absence of major continental wars in Europe.
• 🇺🇸 Donald Trump's actions are seen as even more fundamental, potentially ending the global order established in 1945 that was underpinned by US power, the dollar, and NATO.

Shifting Global Dynamics and US Relations

• 📉 The unraveling of the post-1945 order is evident in actions like Trump's approach to the Ukraine war and his perceived contempt for historic European allies.
• 📈 Trump's reversal on tariffs was likely driven by economic realities, including the risk of a US recession and questioning of the dollar's position.
• 🇪🇺 The exclusion of European voices from substantive negotiations on Ukraine, such as those between Americans and Russians, is seen as humiliating given the stakes for European security.

European Defence and Strategic Autonomy

• 🚨 A sense of urgency regarding defense investment and cooperation is growing across Europe, though intensity varies by region.
• 🇩🇪 Germany's new coalition, under Chancellor Friedri Matz, signals a significant shift by allocating 500 billion euros for investment in defense and infrastructure, loosening fiscal rules.
• 🤝 While opposition to joint borrowing for defense exists in some capitals like the Netherlands, Germany's central role and policy shift are expected to drive a fundamental change in European defense.

AI and Tech Sovereignty

• 🌐 The EU recognizes the risk of being squeezed between China and US big tech, especially with American tech firms aligning closely with Trump.
• 💡 There is a growing awareness of the need for EU independence in AI and technology, not just from China but also from the US.
• 🚀 Initiatives and investments in AI startups, including EU funding and national efforts, indicate a continental push to prepare for a rougher global era where technology is integral to defense and societal efforts.