Lori Calvasina on Tariffs, Earnings, and Market Trends

Tariffs and Their Impact

• 💡 The theory that tariffs would not have an impact is demonstrably false, with smaller companies already struggling.
• ⚠️ Impacts from tariffs are anticipated to be felt more significantly in the fall rather than the summer, mirroring patterns seen in 2018.
• 🗓️ It took several months in 2018 for the effects of trade wars to be fully digested and discussed by companies.

Corporate Earnings and Tone

• 📊 While financial sector execution remains strong, the corporate tone is guarded, reflecting caution not yet fully priced into stocks.
• 📉 Surveys like the Duke CFO survey have not shown positive inflection, unlike consumer sentiment surveys.
• 🧩 Companies are managing tariffs differently, with some absorbing costs, others pausing demand, and some pulling forward demand.

Inventory and Inflation

• 📦 Inventories have been used as a buffer, explaining the delayed impact on inflation.
• ⏳ Companies will need to provide clarity on when these inventory buffers will deplete.
• 📈 The dynamics of inventory levels will vary significantly by company and industry.

Market Dynamics and Momentum

• 🎢 The resurgence of