Lord Ricketts on Trump, Aukus Submarine Deal, and Russian Asset Seizure

Aukus Submarine Deal Under Threat

• ⚠️ The Aukus nuclear submarine deal between the US, UK, and Australia is reportedly under review by the Pentagon.
• 🎯 This review is framed as an alignment with the "America First" agenda, potentially jeopardizing a key security cooperation pillar.
• 💡 Lord Ricketts expresses long-standing doubts about the feasibility of transferring highly enriched uranium nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, given its lack of nuclear experience.
• 📉 The potential collapse of the deal could lead to the UK pushing out the French in favor of a deal that may not materialize.

UK Defense Spending and Soft Power

• 📉 Despite a rise in defense spending, the UK government has not set a timeline to reach the NATO-recommended 3% of GDP.
• 📌 Current spending is set to reach 2.5% by 2027, with a slight increase for intelligence, which is considered insufficient by experts.
• ✂️ Cuts to international aid, while increasing defense spending, are seen as incoherent and detrimental to the UK's soft power and global influence.
• 🌍 Security is viewed holistically, requiring a well-funded Foreign Office and development budget alongside defense capabilities.

Seizing Frozen Russian Assets

• 💰 The discussion touches upon the possibility of seizing frozen Russian state assets to fund Ukraine's defense against Russia's invasion.
• ⚖️ While interest from these assets is being used, seizing the principal assets is legally and politically complex, with concerns about international law and deterring investors.
• 🇪🇺 The EU and UK currently use the interest, but seizing assets is being considered, with Germany now in favor.
• 🌍 For maximum impact, any seizure of assets needs to be a wider international effort, not just a unilateral move by the UK.
• 🚫 Lord Ricketts advises against using a G7 meeting with Donald Trump present to launch such a deal, as it could be seen as provocative and increase division.