Lessons on Democratic Backsliding and Resistance Movements

Hungary's Democratic Backsliding

• 🇭🇺 Hungary's transition into an "illiberal regime" is described as a gradual hollowing out of democratic institutions rather than an overt decree.
• 💡 A Hungarian social scientist noted that this method is "cheaper, easier, looks nice on TV," avoiding rapid escalation that would alert the public.
• 🏛️ Victor Orban, after returning to power in 2010, embraced "illiberal democracy," retaining democratic elements that ensure his power while discarding others.
• 🎓 The Central European University (CEU) in Budapest, founded to support post-Soviet democracy, faced government pressure and regulatory hurdles, leading to its effective closure as a degree-granting institution in Hungary.

The US Context and Media Erosion

• 🇺🇸 The US is grappling with its own democratic backsliding, with actions by Donald Trump categorized into weakening checks and balances, weaponizing state power, undermining the rule of law, controlling information, and suppressing dissent.
• 📰 The erosion of independent media in Hungary is likened to a scenario where "Fox News was basically every TV channel and the New York Post was like every newspaper."
• 📺 Partizán, a Hungarian independent media outlet primarily on YouTube, operates openly but faces potential government crackdowns through new legislation targeting foreign funding.
• 🗣️ Hungarian journalists advise American counterparts to remain fair, regulate anger, focus on policy, and avoid creating echo chambers for their audience.

The 3.5% Rule and Civil Resistance

• 📈 An old academic study on civil resistance has resurfaced, suggesting that no regime has survived when 3.5% of the population actively participates in a movement.
• 🕊️ Research indicates that nonviolent campaigns succeed twice as often as violent ones, largely due to mass diverse participation.
• 🤝 Successful pro-democracy movements, like those in Brazil and South Korea, have involved broad coalitions including business leaders, faith leaders, and trade unions.
• 🛡️ The refusal of security forces to obey orders to repress protesters is a critical factor in the downfall of autocratic regimes, as seen in the Philippines.

Navigating Fear and Maintaining Hope

• 🎯 Autocrats aim to overwhelm citizens, making them feel powerless, but history shows that organized movements can challenge even brutal tyrannies.
• 🏛️ While institutions like courts and universities play a role, the resilience of democracy also depends on popular movements, effective opposition, and the habits of civic participation.
• ❓ The denial of democratic backsliding can lead to "inconvenient questions" about voting, protesting, and the fundamental legitimacy of the regime.
• 💡 Despite challenges, the possibility of reversing democratic backsliding exists, as demonstrated by recent events in Poland and Brazil, offering a message of hope.