Lazard CEO Peter Orszag on Inflation, Fed Policy, and CEO Sentiment

Economic Outlook and Inflationary Pressures

• 💡 The economy is in decent, not amazing, shape, with a slightly weakened labor market and consumer sentiment, but overall holding up.
• ⚠️ Upward pressure on core inflation is anticipated going into early next year due to the gradual pass-through of tariff impacts, with only about a quarter of the effect seen so far.
• 🎯 The Federal Reserve faces a tough spot with conflicting mandates if inflation pressures materialize while the labor market weakens.

Labor Market Dynamics and CEO Sentiment

• 📉 While overall job numbers may be affected by immigration, there are signs of a weakening labor market through reduced attrition and voluntary job moves.
• 📈 Despite some weakening signs, the economy has held up remarkably well, and CEO sentiment remains very positive.
• 🌍 CEOs are navigating a duality of exciting technological opportunities alongside significant geopolitical uncertainty and questions about the US economy's global standing.

Deal Market and Lazard's Vision

• 🚀 The M&A market is showing more momentum, with large companies considering significant transactions and private equity seeing demand for capital return.
• 📊 Lazard has achieved 100% total shareholder return over the past two years, driven by strategic steps and a warming market.
• 🤝 Internally, Lazard is focused on hiring high-quality talent and has hit productivity targets ahead of schedule.
• 📈 The asset management business is experiencing net positive flows, with a new CEO joining to further accelerate growth.
• 🤖 AI is seen as a key enabler for accelerating Lazard's growth and improving client advice, with a new board member focused on this area.