Larry Kudlow: Is the Recession Over? Analyzing US Economic Indicators

US Industrial Production Surges

• 🏭 US industrial production reached a new record high in February, exceeding the previous peak from late 2018.
• 🚗 Manufacturing saw a significant increase of 0.9%, largely driven by an 8.5% jump in motor vehicles and parts.
• 💡 High-tech output increased by 1.4% in February and is up over 2.6% annually over the past three months.
• 📈 Business equipment output rose 1.6% in February and nearly 24% annually over the past three months, potentially boosted by expectations of bonus expensing.

Demand-Side Strength

• 🛒 Core retail sales increased by 1% in February, showing a 3.8% annual rate over the last three months.
• 🏠 Housing starts surged by over 11% in February, indicating a potential rebound after recent slumps, aided by deregulation efforts and a drop in mortgage rates.

Economic Policy and Outlook

• 📊 The Trump administration's deregulation plan and potential tax cut program are highlighted as factors supporting economic growth.
• 📉 Despite predictions from "liberal journalists" about tariffs causing recession and high inflation, current inflation readings for February were tame.
• ⚠️ Kudlow suggests that policies aimed at stimulating the economy, such as tax cuts, are crucial to definitively end recessionary fears.