Larry Kudlow: Can We Trust China's Trade Deal Promises?

Trump's Asia Tour and Trade Deals

• 🌏 President Trump's Asia tour is reportedly yielding significant trade deals and national security relationships, with the stock market reacting positively.
• 📈 The market is described as being in "meltup mode," with profits being the key driver, and peaceful trade deals are seen as helpful.
• 📉 A potential US tariff rate of around 15% is mentioned as a low number that could help profits, with no apparent trade war retaliation from Asia.

Strategies to Counter China's Practices

• 🤝 Deals with Vietnam, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand include transshipment provisions designed to prevent China from hiding unfair trading practices by routing exports through these countries.
• 🇯🇵 In Japan, President Trump is reportedly getting along well, with discussions about Japan buying Ford 150 trucks, US rare earths, and a significant Japanese investment in the US.

China's Commitments and Skepticism

• 🇨🇳 Regarding China, a potential "return to the future" scenario involves suspending China's rare earth moratorium for a year, possibly leading to a suspension of US tariffs.
• 🌾 China is expected to resume buying soybeans, and a new deal on fentanyl is reported, though skepticism is expressed due to past unfulfilled promises.
• ⚠️ Beijing was supposed to crack down on fentanyl precursor chemicals 7 years ago, but the speaker questions whether China will actually stop fentanyl exports this time.
• 🛢️ The US believes it has leverage over China, citing the US's economic strength and actions against Iran and China's influence in the Middle East and South America.
• 🚀 Trump expects China to stop buying Russian oil to avoid secondary sanctions that could remove Chinese commerce from the dollar system.
• 🔍 An investigation into the original US-China phase 1 deal is expected, as China reportedly did not abide by its terms.
• ❓ The core question posed is whether anyone can ever trust or believe the Chinese CCP.