Larry Kudlow: Black Friday Spending Surges Amidst Economic Growth

Black Friday Spending Surge

• 🛍️ Black Friday spending reached new highs, with record-breaking online sales totaling $11.8 billion on the day itself.
• 💡 Online sales accounted for approximately 10% of total November sales, amounting to over $111 billion, according to Adobe Analytics.
• 🚀 Adobe predicts the 2025 holiday season will see the biggest online spending in US history, partly driven by AI-boosted traffic.

Economic Indicators and Affordability

• 📉 Initial unemployment claims remain low, with a 4-week average of 214,000, indicating the US is nowhere near a recession.
• 📈 Wages are rising faster than prices, with wage income up 5.3% while the core personal consumption deflator (Fed's inflation measure) is at 2.7%.
• ✅ This means take-home pay for working individuals is ahead of prices by 2.6%, with further boosts expected from tax refunds.

Business Investment and Growth

• 🏭 A business capex boom is underway, with capital spending up 9.1% over the past 12 months, driven by tax incentives.
• 🛠️ This includes increased spending on machinery, equipment, and factory building, which in turn requires hiring new employees.
• 💰 The need to hire in a low-unemployment environment will likely lead to higher wages, benefiting consumers.