Kevin Hassett's Conspiracy Theory About Rigged Jobs Numbers Explained

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Process

• 📊 The BLS, under the Department of Labor, releases a monthly report on job additions or subtractions to the economy.
• 💡 This report is compiled through surveys of businesses (establishment survey) and households (household survey), similar to polling.
• ⚠️ The numbers released are estimates based on survey responses, as not all data is collected in time for the initial release.
• 🧑‍💼 The BLS has over 2,000 nonpartisan career employees, with about 40-50 dedicated to the jobs report, ensuring continuity across administrations.

Trump's Allegations and the BLS Commissioner

• 🗣️ Donald Trump falsely claimed the BLS jobs numbers were rigged by a Biden appointee, Dr. Erica McInterer, to boost election chances.
• 📉 Trump cited specific instances of alleged overstatements and downward revisions, calling them a "total scam."
• 🚫 The speaker refutes these claims, explaining that the BLS commissioner only sees the data two days before release, making manipulation by that office improbable.
• 🔄 Revisions to jobs numbers are standard scientific practice, occurring as more complete data (e.g., unemployment insurance data) becomes available annually or monthly.

Kevin Hassett's Role and Misinformation

• 📺 Kevin Hassett, former Trump economic advisor, appeared on CNBC to discuss the BLS, falsely claiming the Bureau of Labor Statistics "rigged" jobs numbers for Obama.
• 🤥 Hassett cited a GDP release as suspicious, but GDP is measured by the Department of Commerce, not the BLS, suggesting he is intentionally misleading.
• 🎯 This misinformation aims to create an opening for Trump to question and potentially alter BLS methodology.

Trump's Playbook for Manipulating Data

• 📝 Trump's strategy involves five steps: trashing BLS methodology, nominating someone to update it, funneling cash to outside help, seeing numbers rise, and then comparing "apples to oranges" to brag about growth.
• 🧩 A new commissioner could alter definitions, such as including Uber/Lyft drivers in full-time payroll, to artificially boost job numbers.
• 💰 Partnering with private vendors could lead to millions in contracts for Trump allies, further compromising data integrity.
• 📉 The speaker warns that manipulating these numbers can lead to less trust in the economy, higher costs for goods, and increased prices for individuals, citing Argentina and Turkey as examples of economic calamity due to data manipulation.