Kevin Hassett on Historic Trade Deals, Federal Reserve Independence, and BLS Revisions

Revisions at the Bureau of Labor Statistics

• 📉 Kevin Hassett discusses the firing of the BLS Commissioner, citing concerns about the reliability of labor numbers due to frequent and significant downward revisions.
• ⚠️ He notes that revisions since COVID-19 have been substantial, making the data noisy and untrustworthy, necessitating a fresh perspective.

Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

• 🏦 Hassett addresses the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Cougler, suggesting a replacement would normally be nominated and await Senate confirmation.
• 🗣️ He emphasizes that while the White House respects the Fed's independence, they reserve the right to disagree with policy, particularly regarding the Fed's perceived delay in cutting interest rates.
• 📈 The tight monetary policy is seen as risking an economic downturn, despite positive momentum from the 'big beautiful bill' which is expected to boost growth without causing inflation.

Trump's Trade Policy and Economic Impact

• 🌍 Hassett describes President Trump's new trade deals as a 'historic moment in trade history', highlighting that countries are lining up to open their markets to U.S. products.
• 💰 He argues that tariffs, averaging around 15%, are a small price to pay for doing business in the U.S. and that the revenue generated over 10 years will be trillions, often borne by foreign companies and countries.
• 🤝 The success is attributed to achieving collegial agreements to open markets and allow tariffs without triggering a trade war, a diplomatic triumph.
• 📊 Despite a recent 'lousy jobs number,' the stock market is described as fabulous, the economy is above water, and business is doing very well, with significant direct investment coming into the U.S.