Keith Self Challenges CBO Director on Tax Cut and Obamacare Projections

Scrutiny of CBO Projections

• 🎯 Rep. Keith Self questioned CBO Director Phillip Swagel regarding the accuracy of CBO's past projections for major legislation.
• 💡 The focus was on the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which CBO initially projected would reduce deficits by $613 billion, but ultimately cost upwards of $1.5 trillion.
• ⚠️ Self argued that CBO's scoring for the ACA was "optimistic" and that for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, CBO was "pessimistic."

TCJA and Revenue Estimates

• 📈 Self pointed to record revenues in 2018 and 2019, suggesting CBO underestimated economic growth following the TCJA.
• 📊 He noted that federal revenues have consistently remained around 17% of GDP for the past 40 years, regardless of tax policy changes.
• 📉 The expectation based on CBO's TCJA deficit projections was a recession, which Self stated did not occur until the COVID-19 pandemic.

CBO Director's Defense

• 🗣️ CBO Director Phillip Swagel defended the TCJA analysis, stating it was "remarkably accurate" and that information to the contrary was misleading.
• 🧐 Swagel explained that CBO was over-optimistic on growth in 2018 and 2019, partly due to tariffs impacting growth timing, but that overall accuracy was around 99.8% for revenues.
• 📊 He attributed revenue deviations after 2020 to extraordinary factors like the pandemic, high inflation, and federal reserve policies, not flawed initial projections.
• 🤝 Swagel offered to provide a detailed explanation of the CBO's estimates and actual outcomes if given sufficient time.