Keir Giles on Ukraine's Demilitarized Zone: 'Unfeasible' and Benefits Putin

Proposed Demilitarized Zone in Ukraine

• 💡 A proposal for a 40 km buffer zone along Ukraine's 1000 km front line is being considered by European leaders.
• 🎯 This demilitarized area would be policed by European peacekeepers, with Britain and France potentially forming the core.
• ⚠️ The plan is described as completely unfeasible due to the immense commitment required for policing and protection.

Russian Support and Strategic Implications

• 🇷🇺 Russia reportedly favors the idea, as it would involve Ukrainian forces retreating 40 km, removing their defensive lines.
• 🧩 This move is seen as another proposal unlikely to progress, fitting a pattern of Russian initiatives that appear constructive but are actually traps.
• 🗺️ The proposal could effectively freeze Russian gains and divide Ukraine, benefiting Russia at the expense of Ukraine.

Feasibility of European Troop Deployment

• ❓ There is skepticism about which countries would be willing to provide troops for such a mission.
• 📉 Past attempts to form coalitions, like the one discussed in February, faced U-turns due to a lack of US support and the limited capacity of the British armed forces.
• ⏳ The core condition for any such deployment is that the fighting must end, a prospect that currently seems distant.

Russia's Broader Strategic Goals

• 💥 President Putin's endgame involves rewriting the map of Eastern Europe, undoing historical borders.
• 🇪🇪 This ambition extends beyond Ukraine, posing a potential threat to other former Russian Empire countries.
• ⚠️ While Russia's ground forces are tied up in Ukraine, they possess other means of causing damage, including long-range naval and air force capabilities, posing a threat to Western Europe.

Peace Negotiations and Current Conflict Dynamics

• 🕊️ The current proposals for security guarantees and peace negotiations are vague and unlikely to be effective while fighting continues.
• ⚔️ Russia is not desperate to end the fighting but aims to win the war, while Western countries have a less clear strategy for ensuring European security.
• 📈 Recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have impacted Russia's capacity, but the conflict and associated violence are expected to continue until both sides are ready to end it.