Keeping up with Bill Ackman | Stock Portfolio Update 7/15/25

Portfolio Performance Overview

• 🎯 The primary investment goal is to outperform the S&P 500 and Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Holdings.
• 📈 Year-to-date, my portfolio gained +21.73%, significantly ahead of Pershing Square's +15.36% and the S&P 500's +6.39%.
• 📊 Since the last update, my portfolio saw a +0.08% gain, Pershing Square +2.07%, and the S&P 500 +0.29%.

Dave Stock Analysis and Strategy

• 📉 The Dave position was trimmed by 25% following a rapid sell-off after a substantial peak.
• 🚀 Dave experienced a 161.88% gain from its earnings report to its peak, but then saw a 28.67% decline from its July 3rd high.
• 💡 The stock closed at a significant support level, which has historically led to price bounces.
• ⚠️ Current analysis shows the share price below both the 5-day and 15-day moving averages, indicating a downward trend.
• ✅ The decision to trim was made when the share price fell below the 15-day moving average, anticipating further losses.

S&P 500 (SPY) Market Insights

• 📈 SPY has touched the resistance level twice since the last update but failed to break above it.
• 📉 A 2.16% decline would bring SPY to its support level, whereas a 0.58% gain would retest the resistance.
• 🚨 SPY is currently below the 5-day moving average but still above the 15-day moving average.
• 🧠 Crossing below the 15-day moving average is considered a significant concern for the continuation of an uptrend.
• 🎯 The strategy for the 15-day MA involves assessing the likelihood of a bounce versus further declines before deciding to hold or trim positions.

Investment Approach and Current Holdings

• 🔄 The portfolio currently consists of 14 positions, with updates provided every Tuesday and Sunday.
• 💰 Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Palantir, and Welltower are the top five holdings, comprising 33.22% of the portfolio.
• 💸 After trimming the Dave position, 69.63% of the portfolio is invested, leaving 30.37% in cash.