Katie Stockton on Market Trends, Technicals, and 2026 Outlook

Market Uptrend and Momentum

• 📈 The uptrend is still very much alive and well, but the market has experienced a loss of intermediate-term momentum since mid-October.
• ⚠️ This loss of momentum puts Fairlead Strategies on watch for a deeper corrective phase.
• 💡 A breakout to new highs would require a couple of solid closes above resistance at 6911 to be considered a short-term positive catalyst.
• 🎯 Otherwise, the assumption is that the market is in a corrective mode, waiting for a better entry point triggered by oversold upturns.

Confirmation Over Incremental New Highs

• 🔍 Confirmation is crucial for breakouts, especially in low-volume environments, to prevent whipsaws.
• ✅ A short-term breakout needs to hold for a couple of days for confirmation, similar to downside confirmation.
• 📊 Measured move projections from previous breakouts, like 6880, can act as resistance, and new short-term breakouts might only reach 7100 with limited risk-reward.

10-Year Treasury Yields Outlook

• 📊 The 10-year Treasury yields have been rangebound for a long time, with conflicting indications from different time frames.
• 📉 Monthly indicators mostly point lower for yields, suggesting a bias towards the threes camp.
• ⚠️ A more decisive breakdown from a longer-term triangle pattern is needed to call this call more aggressively.
• 📌 The next support level for 10-year Treasury yields is around 3.67.

Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Volatility

• 💰 Bitcoin's support level is around 84-85,000, based on the cloud model.
• 🚀 Near-term bias on Bitcoin is more constructive due to oversold conditions, but monthly charts show deterioration in momentum gauges.
• ⚠️ This suggests cryptocurrencies might be entering a trading range or down cycle rather than a cyclical uptrend into 2026.
• 🎢 While institutional involvement might reduce volatility, it's still possible to see significant drawdowns, and volatility is cyclical, not necessarily entering a low-volatility cycle.