Josh Pate's LSU Football Season Preview: Questions, Predictions, and Key Factors

LSU's 2025 Season Outlook

• 🐯 Last year's 9-4 record is viewed as potentially hollow, but optimism is high if everything aligns for the current season.
• 📈 LSU has the eighth-best odds to win the national championship and fourth-best odds to win the SEC, with an over/under win total of 8.5 due to a tough schedule.

Offensive Balance and Quarterback Play

• 🏈 LSU's offense was heavily pass-oriented last year (534 passes vs. 373 runs), ranking seventh in passing and 107th in rushing.
• 🎯 Garrett Nussmeier is considered a good quarterback but not an elite, transcendent talent, and should not be asked to carry the passing game alone.
• 🏃‍♂️ A more balanced offensive approach, with a stronger run game, is crucial for LSU's success and to allow Nussmeier to shine.

Defensive Improvement and Consistency

• 🛡️ The defense is expected to improve significantly under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker, moving from 108th to 61st last year, with key portal additions in the secondary and at edge.
• 🎯 The goal is to elevate the defense into the top 30 nationally to enable a more complimentary style of play.
• 📊 Consistency in performance is a major question, with a desire for a more predictable level of play week-to-week, rather than extreme highs and lows.

Key Players and Schedule Challenges

• 🌟 The wide receiver group is considered LSU's best position group, with ample talent to support the offense.
• 🚀 Kaden Durham is highlighted as a potential breakout player, with the potential to be a thousand-yard rusher if the run game is more effective.
• 🗓️ LSU faces the seventh-toughest schedule in the SEC, including early season tests against Clemson and Florida, and a challenging November stretch against Alabama and Oklahoma.

Predicted Outcomes and Range of Possibilities

• 📈 The model projects LSU's best-case scenario as 11-1, with a worst-case scenario of 5-7, indicating a wide range of potential outcomes.
• 📊 The most likely outcome predicted by the model is 9-3, which could still be sufficient for a playoff berth.