John Mearsheimer on Why Bombing Iran Would Strengthen the Regime

The Israeli Desire for Regime Change in Iran

• 🎯 Israel and Netanyahu have long aimed for a regime change war in Iran to eliminate their primary regional competitor.
• 💡 The US-installed Shah in 1953 created significant resentment, leading to the current government.

Impact of US Intervention on Iranian Protests

• 💣 A US bombing campaign against Iran would likely end protests and cause a rally around the flag effect, strengthening the current regime.
• 🤝 This mirrors how external conflicts can unify a population behind their government, similar to the post-October 7th situation in Israel.

The Strategy of External Threats

• 🇺🇸 It's argued that the US often threatens countries like Cuba, which paradoxically helps maintain the existing regime intact.
• 💡 Backing off and fostering good relations, allowing cultural influence, could be a more effective strategy for desired regime change.

Assessing the Iranian Regime's Stability

• 📈 Propaganda from the US and Israeli governments suggests the Iranian regime is on the verge of collapse, but this is disputed by knowledgeable sources.
• ✊ The regime is described as ruthless, possessing substantial support, and is actively suppressing protests, with some cities showing pro-regime demonstrations.
• 🔮 The prediction is that the regime will likely shut down the protests.

Indifference of Iran's Allies

• 🌍 Allies like Russia and China appear indifferent to the situation in Iran and Venezuela due to a lack of military options.
• 🇷🇺 Russia is focused on the war in Ukraine and avoiding conflict with the US over Iran.
• 🇨🇳 China lacks the power projection capability in the Middle East and is geographically distant, while Venezuela is in the US's sphere of influence.
• 🚫 Neither China nor Russia is expected to intervene militarily to support Iran or Venezuela.