John Herbst: Why Putin Will Reject Ukraine's Peace Deal

Putin's Unwavering Goal: Subduing Ukraine

• 🎯 Putin's primary objective is to subdue Ukraine, which minimally involves seizing the entire east bank of the Dnieper River and controlling the Ukrainian Black Sea coast.
• 🗺️ This strategy would leave a diminished "rump Ukraine" in the west, with Putin prepared to continue the war until his aims are met.

Evolving Peace Proposals

• ✍️ While diplomacy is active, with revised proposals emerging, the core challenge remains: Putin is content to fight until Ukraine is subdued.
• ⚖️ Early proposals, potentially drafted by Moscow, were heavily criticized for demanding Ukraine cede land and accept limitations on its military while imposing no such restrictions on Russia.
• ✅ Newer European amendments, such as removing automatic vetoes on NATO membership and troop caps, represent significant improvements over the initial draft.

Obstacles to a Fair Settlement

• ❓ A major unresolved issue is securing US security guarantees for Ukraine against future Russian aggression, a critical red line for Kyiv.
• 📜 Even if Ukraine agrees to terms protecting its future, there is no indication the Kremlin intends to sign or honor any agreement.
• ⏳ The effectiveness of diplomacy hinges on whose interests the final document serves and whether Putin has any genuine intention of adhering to it.

Trump's Role and Pressure Tactics

• 💡 Donald Trump's involvement has injected urgency, though his understanding of the issue has evolved, moving from criticism of Zelenskyy to acknowledging Russian obstructionism.
• 📈 Putin's direct attempts to influence Trump appear to be waning, leading to a shift towards using intermediaries like Dmitri Medvedev.
• 💥 To achieve peace, Putin needs to face massive pressure on both the battlefield and the economy through a sustained series of punishing steps, including more powerful weapons for Ukraine and stringent economic sanctions.