John Herbst on Trump-Putin Talks, Sanctions, and Ukraine Peace Prospects

Impact of Trump-Putin Talks on Peace

• 🎯 The recent phone call between Trump and Putin did nothing to advance a durable peace in Ukraine.
• ⚠️ Moscow's objective is to gain effective political control of Ukraine, including major cities like Odessa, Kyiv, and Kharkiv.
• 📉 Russia hopes Trump will decrease American support for Ukraine, enabling further territorial gains.

Sanctions and Leverage Over Russia

• 💰 Existing sanctions have caused serious damage to the Russian economy, but not enough to end the war.
• 💡 Potential new sanctions include targeting the Russian ghost fleet illegally transporting oil and imposing secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian products.
• 🏦 Another option is to seize approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian state assets and transfer them to Ukraine.

Arms Shipments and Diplomatic Solutions

• ⚡ Allowing substantial shipments of American arms to Ukraine could deter Russia from taking more territory and encourage a peace agreement.
• ⛽ If sanctions on Russian oil lead to higher gas prices in the US, Trump could use diplomacy with OPEC nations to increase oil production and offset the impact.
• 🤝 Skillful diplomacy, similar to Trump's past dealings with OPEC, could help manage economic concerns while pursuing national security objectives.