John Herbst on Trump, Putin, and Ending the War in Ukraine

Progress and Sticking Points in Negotiations

• 💡 Substantial progress has been made in negotiations between the United States and Ukraine, with Zelenskyy agreeing to several of Trump's proposals.
• ⚠️ However, Putin has rejected every single one of these proposals, leaving Moscow's true intentions unclear.
• 🤝 A key development involves Zelenskyy's potential agreement to hand over strategically valuable areas in western Donbas to a demilitarized economic zone, provided Russia also pulls back comparably.
• 🛡️ A crucial element of the emerging deal is the insistence on serious international troops within this demilitarized zone to prevent future Russian aggression, with security guarantees for the US ratified by the Senate.

Trump's Role and Putin's Strategy

• 🤔 Trump has historically shown periods of being tough on Zelenskyy and moderately tough on Putin, with recent sanctions on major Russian oil firms.
• ⏳ Putin has been meticulous in avoiding actions that would annoy Trump, but this may become unsustainable if Trump demands concessions.
• 💬 Russian officials have praised Trump's peace efforts and expressed willingness to negotiate, but their recent statements suggest significant differences from the US-Ukraine plan.

China's Perspective and US Policy

• 🇨🇳 China is watching the war intently and does not want Russia to lose, as this could embolden China's actions regarding Taiwan.
• 💰 Xi Jinping wants to see America allow Putin to win in Ukraine, interpreting a US failure as a sign of weakness.
• 🚫 China has provided support to Putin but avoids crossing American red lines, such as sending weapon systems.

Achieving a Durable Peace

• 🎯 The only way to end the war is if Putin understands the US and Trump are determined to achieve a durable peace, not a temporary ceasefire.
• 💥 This requires making it extremely painful for Putin to continue his push for political control of Ukraine, which would involve significant further fighting.
• 📈 To achieve this, Trump must exert serious pressure on Putin through increased sanctions, greater weapons supplies to Ukraine (potentially funded by Europeans), and the use of frozen Russian state assets for Ukraine's benefit.
• 📉 A previously proposed plan involving Ukraine receiving only $100 billion of frozen assets, with the US and Russia getting the majority, was seen as a sign that the Trump team might not be tough enough.