John Gray: Liberalism's Crisis, Populism, and the Hobbesian State

Critiquing Modern Politics

• 💡 Keir Starmer's technocratic approach is seen as flawed, promising stability in a volatile world where old ideologies no longer fit and societal values are deeply contradictory.
• ⚠️ The idea of depoliticizing issues by handing them to courts or semi-independent institutions, a concept termed "rights fundamentalism," is predicted to lead to conflict rather than consensus.
• 🌍 The current era is characterized by geopolitical instability and a chronic state of war, making traditional political formulas and promises of stability unsustainable.

The Liberal Delusion

• 🧠 Many liberals exhibit cognitive dissonance, attributing societal problems like Trump's election to external factors (e.g., Russian interference) rather than internal conflicts or the failures of their own policies.
• 🎯 This "immunizing" of theories prevents liberals from reconsidering beliefs that don't align with reality, leading to a misperception of society's values and desires.
• 🎭 The self-image of politicians as "tough-minded pragmatists" often masks an ideological commitment to specific values (e.g., human rights, law) that they assume are universally shared, ignoring deep societal dissent.

Understanding Populism

• 📈 Populism is a backlash against the imposition of progressive agendas and values that are not shared by large segments of the population, mobilizing opposition rather than achieving consensus.
• 🚫 The belief that populism will simply "peak" is a delusion, as its underlying causes—economic injustice and the attempt to re-engineer society based on a single cluster of values—remain unaddressed.
• 🛠️ Attempts to remodel political parties, such as the Labour Party's shift away from Corbynism, often fail because they neglect fundamental economic issues and the public's desire for radical change, not just stabilization.

Reinterpreting Hobbesian Liberalism

• 🔑 John Gray views Thomas Hobbes as a liberal because Hobbes envisioned a political order not dependent on deep value consensus, but on conditional authority that prevents a "war of all against all."
• 🤝 A "new Hobbesian dilemma" arises from identity groups seeking privileges, leading to fragmented societies rather than atomized individuals, where groups fight for power and resources.
• 🌱 The ideal is a modest modus vivendi liberalism, where people with diverse values can coexist and "rub along together" without being forced into a single moral or cultural solidarity.

The Path Forward for the West

• 🛡️ To prevent ungovernability and preserve liberal values, a strong, Hobbesian state is necessary, one that is not conflated with a progressive agenda or overly invasive surveillance.
• 📉 The "decline of the West" is a real phenomenon, requiring an abandonment of "hubristic illusions" about controlling history or imposing universal Western values on the non-West.
• ✅ The focus should be on reinventing and reimagining core liberal values like free speech, toleration, and mutual forbearance within one's own society, rather than pursuing a universal political project that is no longer viable.