Jim Walsh on Trump-Putin Meeting, Ukraine War Stalemate, and US Support

The Difficulty of War Termination

• 💡 War termination is often difficult without a clear winner, leading to prolonged conflicts where both sides can create narratives of eventual victory.
• 🎯 In the Ukraine conflict, Ukraine believes it can win by holding on, while Russia believes Ukraine will eventually give in, creating a stalemate.
• ⚠️ Historical examples, like the strategic bombing of London, show that imposing will through force doesn't always work and can even strengthen resolve.

Russia's Economic Strain and Ukraine's Resilience

• 🇷🇺 Despite Russia's greater power, its economy is suffering, with economic ministers predicting a lack of funds within a year.
• 🇺🇦 Ukraine, while bearing the brunt of the fighting on its territory, is showing resilience against Russian assaults.
• 💥 Both sides are weakened and experiencing pain, but it's unclear if this has reached a point of stalemate and exhaustion sufficient for an agreement.

Shifting American Public Opinion

• 📈 American support for aiding Ukraine is on the rise, with 38% believing the US should do more, up from 23% last October.
• ⚖️ Public sympathy leans towards Ukraine due to alleged war crimes and abductions, making Americans unsympathetic to Putin's actions.
• 📊 However, American public opinion is not the deciding factor; the combatants themselves will ultimately settle the war.

Perceived Upper Hand in Negotiations

• 🗣️ A Fox News poll indicates 58% of Americans believe Putin has the upper hand in negotiations, while 35% believe Trump does.
• 🗺️ In terms of direct warfighting, Russia holds advantages due to fighting on Ukrainian territory, its larger military, and geographic proximity for resupply.
• 🤝 Despite these advantages, Trump may have some leverage to pressure both sides, but ultimately, parties in conflict are hard to compel into agreements they do not desire.