Jeff Hirsch on Market Performance in Trump's First 100 Days and Historical Trends

Market Performance in Trump's First 100 Days

• 📉 The first 100 days of President Trump's term have been challenging for the markets, with the NASDAQ down approximately 12%, the Dow down 7%, and the S&P 500 down 8%.
• ⚠️ This performance ranks as the third worst among presidential first 100 days, following periods under Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon.

Historical Market Analogies

• 🏛️ The market's performance is compared to the Reagan administration's early years, which also saw economic downturns and soaring interest rates, though the current situation is noted as having more uncertainty.
• 📊 Historical data from the Stock Trader's Almanac indicates that Republican administrations often implement changes quickly in post-election years, a pattern observed in the current administration.

Seasonality and Cautionary Outlook

• 🍂 The "best six months" for the market (November-April) have been negative, indicating that other, more powerful forces may be at play.
• ⚠️ With Q1 and April showing declines, and considering historical patterns of Republican administrations in post-election years (e.g., 1973, 1957, 1969), a cautious stance is warranted for the remainder of the term.
• 📈 While the first 100 days don't always dictate the entire term, a negative start, especially when combined with unfavorable seasonality, suggests potential for further market challenges.