Jake Sherman on Government Shutdown: No Policy Wins for Democrats, Risks for Republicans

Bipartisan Agreement and Democratic Outcomes

• 🎯 Democrats are seen as getting nothing significant in terms of policy wins from the recent agreement.
• 💡 Claims of wins like SNAP funding for a year or reversing Trump-era layoffs are dismissed as standard procedures upon reopening the government.
• 📉 The narrative is that shutdowns do not yield policy concessions for the instigating party, a lesson learned by Donald Trump and House Republicans in previous shutdowns.

Republican Risks and Healthcare

• ⚠️ The agreement presents a risk for Republicans as it forces a future conversation about healthcare, which has historically not been a winning issue for them.
• 📈 Credits are expiring at the end of the year, and Republicans may face pressure to address this, though it's considered a modest risk.
• 🗣️ There's a possibility that voters will blame Republicans for controlling Washington if healthcare premiums rise significantly.

Midterm Elections and Political Landscape

• ⏳ The political landscape is highly unpredictable, with 12 months feeling like 12 years in Donald Trump's Washington.
• 🤔 It's unclear who will be worse off in the midterms, as neither party appears to be in a strong position.
• 📊 Many Republicans believe they will shoulder the blame for the shutdown's outcomes.

Shutdown Mechanics and Consequences

• 💥 Government shutdowns are designed to exact pain in exchange for policy concessions, with federal workers often caught in the middle.
• 📉 While most economic damage from a shutdown is predicted to reverse, the current funding bill sets another deadline for January 30th for the rest of the government.
• 🏛️ The House of Representatives is expected to face a turbulent vote, with a slim majority and significant opposition from both parties.
• ⏳ Members of Congress have been out of session for over 50 days, which is described as an obscene situation, especially as they continue to receive paychecks.
• 💸 The idea of stopping pay for members of Congress is suggested as a way to make shutdowns tougher and potentially quicker.