Israel's Strategy to Subdue Iran: A Trita Parsi Analysis

Israel's Strategic Aims in Iran

• 🎯 Israel's primary objective is to subdue Iran, aiming to transform it into a state that Israel can bomb with impunity, similar to Syria, and without direct US involvement.
• ⏳ This strategy, termed "mowing the grass," involves periodic bombings to prevent Iran from developing a deterrence capability against Israel.
• ⚠️ A critical element for Israel is the current opening created by the weakening of the "axis of resistance" and the prior strikes on Iran's air defense systems.

Urgency and US Involvement

• ⏰ Israelis are under time pressure to act before this opening closes, as a delay would allow Iran to rebuild its defenses.
• 🇺🇸 Israel's strategy is heavily reliant on US involvement, making the upcoming US midterm election season a crucial factor.
• 🗓️ The window for action is perceived to be before December, due to the US midterm elections and potential European sanctions snapback, which could create a political opening.

Pretexts and International Law

• ⚖️ Israel's actions in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza are cited as precedents for operating with international community disapproval but US support.
• 📣 Potential pretexts for a new conflict include Iran's uranium enrichment levels and alleged actions with stockpiles, though these may not align with international law.
• 📉 Israel is seen as systematically weakening international norms around the use of force, potentially creating a more permissive environment for military actions.

The Decisive Role of Donald Trump

• 🔑 Donald Trump's stance is identified as the most decisive factor in whether a new conflict escalates, as Israel cannot proceed without US backing.
• 💰 Despite Trump's past actions and potential satisfaction with ending the nuclear threat, his administration was characterized by Israeli persistence wearing him down.
• 💥 A future conflict is anticipated to be much larger and bloodier than previous ones, with Iran likely to strike Israel harder and faster from the outset.

War Outcomes and Iranian Vulnerability

• ❓ The outcome of a future conflict is uncertain, with the previous war being indecisive despite initial Israeli successes.
• 📉 The previous war saw Iran's penetration rate of air defenses increase alarmingly while the US depleted its interceptor stockpile.
• 📈 While Iran's regime remains vulnerable, recent events have fostered a wave of nationalism, potentially lessening the distance between society and government due to perceived external aggression.

Avoiding Further Conflict

• 🤝 The most effective way to avoid another war is for the United States and Iran to reach a deal based on mutual compromise, including limited enrichment for Iran.
• 🚧 Israel is seen as actively opposing any US-Iran deal, preferring a scenario where the US engages in war to establish a regional balance favorable to Israel.