Israel's Stance on Assassinating Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Regime Change

Israeli Strikes and Iranian Response

• 🎯 Iran did not anticipate the massive scope of Israeli strikes, including a significant strike on Iranian state TV during a live broadcast.
• ⚠️ Experts suggest that if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the 86-year-old supreme leader, is not in deep hiding, he should be due to the ongoing strikes.
• ⚡ The strikes are reportedly targeting the top brass, military infrastructure, nuclear program, and oil and gas depots.

The Nature of the Iranian Regime

• 🧠 An Iranian expert notes that the Islamic Republic is not solely dependent on one man; it has a system akin to a "College of Cardinals" or "Assembly of Experts" composed of 88 clerics who determine the supreme leader.
• 👤 This means that one of the clerics or the Ayatollah's sons could replace him.
• ⚖️ However, regime change does not guarantee a more Western-friendly government, as it could potentially be replaced by a military dictatorship.

Israeli Perspective and Endgame

• ❓ The question remains about Netanyahu's endgame and whether Israel's strikes have evolved into an opportunity to break the regime.
• 🗣️ A former Israeli diplomat believes that external attacks alone are insufficient to cause regime fall, emphasizing that such tensions are usually internal.
• 📉 A country of 10 million cannot easily precipitate regime change in a country of 90 million, especially from afar.
• ⚖️ While there is support for Netanyahu in Israel, a prolonged war of attrition could quickly shift public opinion if casualties on both sides increase.