Iran Protests, Internet Shutdowns, and US Policy: A Deep Dive

Phases of the Iran Protests

• 💡 The protests, initially sparked by economic issues on December 28th, rapidly spread across all 31 provinces.
• 🎯 They evolved from economic grievances to a broader anti-regime focus, with chants for regime change rather than reform.
• 🚀 A second phase involved external encouragement, including presidential statements and calls to protest, leading to higher numbers and a more widespread movement.
• 💥 The third phase saw an unprecedented crackdown, with estimates of 10,000 to 30,000 killed, significantly surpassing previous protest casualty figures.

The Regime's Crackdown Machinery

• 🚨 The crackdown involves a combination of Basij militias, the IRGC, and law enforcement forces, totaling over a million personnel.
• 👤 A political decision was made to escalate the crackdown, with the Supreme Leader ultimately directing the harsh response and blaming foreign influence.
• 🚫 Regime leaders, including the Supreme Leader, have openly acknowledged the scale of the crackdown, signaling a shift from previous de-escalation tactics.

Internet Shutdowns: Tactics and Implications

• 🌐 An internet shutdown involves cutting off connectivity, often by disrupting user-to-ISP connections, facilitated by the regime's control over telecommunications infrastructure.
• 🐌 Initially, connectivity was throttled to make it unusable for protest activities like live streaming.
• 📵 This escalated to a drastic disconnection of all communications, including SMS, effectively isolating the population.
• 🌍 This shutdown allowed the crackdown to occur with limited external awareness and hindered internal communication and coordination among protesters.

The "National Internet" and its Precedents

• 🇨🇳 The regime is moving towards a "national internet", a restricted system allowing access only to government-sanctioned sites and services, similar to models in China, Cuba, and North Korea.
• 📉 This is a departure from typical shutdowns, which are usually temporary, indicating a plan for permanent restricted connectivity.
• ⚠️ Implementing this is challenging for Iran due to its integration into the global digital economy and reliance on international business and communication.

Current State of Protests and Systemic Issues

• 📉 Protests have been quelled for the moment, with the regime regaining control of the streets, but underlying systemic problems remain unaddressed.
• 📈 Economic instability is severe, with high inflation and rising food prices creating unsustainable conditions for ordinary Iranians.
• ⏳ The frequency of protests is increasing, suggesting a powder keg situation waiting to re-ignite.
• 🗣️ Even figures within the system recognize the impossibility of reform and the lack of legitimacy for the current government.

US Policy and Future Options

• 🇺🇸 US policy has historically siloed human rights issues from nuclear negotiations, but this approach may be outdated given the current context.
• 💡 The US should consider a more integrated approach, prioritizing human rights alongside other concerns, reflecting American values.
• 🤝 Multilateral diplomacy and naming/shaming Iran for its repression are crucial, as seen in past actions like removing Iran from the Commission on the Status of Women.
• 🛰️ While military options are not viable, efforts to enhance internet connectivity through satellite technology (like Starlink, though facing jamming) and direct-to-cell initiatives could offer limited support.
• ⏳ The long-term outlook suggests the current Islamic Republic is unsustainable, with an eventual inflection point likely upon the Supreme Leader's death, requiring the US to prepare for various post-regime scenarios.