Invest 92L: Tropics Heat Up with 80% Development Chance

Tropical Season Update

• 🗓️ The tropical season is running behind climatology, with only six named storms and one hurricane so far this year.
• 📈 Typically, by this time, more storms have formed, but the second half of the season, especially through September and into mid-October, can become very active.

Monitoring Invest 92L

• ⚠️ A key area to watch is Invest 92L, a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that has been designated by the National Hurricane Center.
• 📊 Over the next two days, there's a 40% chance of development, increasing to an 80% chance over the next seven days.
• 🗺️ The system is currently tracking northwest, away from the Caribbean, and conditions are expected to become more favorable for development.

Model Forecasts and Potential Intensity

• 💻 Computer models show a strong likelihood of development, with kinks and rotation already forming in the system.
• 🌀 Models indicate the system will move west-northwest, potentially north of the islands by the end of the week, with a possible turn more towards the north and west.
• 💨 Wind fields suggest an increase in winds, with the potential to reach tropical storm force.
• 🌡️ Differences among models mainly concern the exact timing of turns and the intensity of the storm.