Invest 91L: Tropical Storm Development Odds Dropping, Meteorologist Valerie Mills Explains

Invest 91L Development Outlook

• 📉 As of Saturday morning, the odds for Invest 91L to develop into a tropical storm have significantly dropped to just a 30% chance within the next week.
• ⚠️ The system is currently characterized by disorganized thunderstorms with no defined center of circulation.
• 🏜️ Invest 91L has been battling significant Sahar and dust, which has hindered its development and movement towards more favorable conditions.

Computer Model Forecasts

• 📊 Most computer models indicate that Invest 91L will not develop further, projecting its track into the Atlantic without nearing the Caribbean.
• 🏝️ However, some ensemble models show a possibility of the system approaching the Leeward and Windward Islands by the middle of the week.
• 💨 The system is expected to continue moving west-northwest at approximately 10 to 15 miles per hour.

Localized Model and Future Naming

• 🌦️ The Fox model specifically shows minimal further development, with only some shower and storm activity potentially approaching the Leeward Islands by Tuesday and Wednesday.
• 🗓️ The next named storm in the Atlantic would be Gabrielle, which typically forms around September 3rd, indicating the basin is currently behind schedule for storm formation.
• 🌊 Currently, Invest 91L is the only area being tracked in the Atlantic Basin.