Invest 91L: Meteorologists Track Tropical Disturbance and Florida Impact

Tracking Invest 91L

• 🌀 Invest 91L is a small, slow-moving disturbance currently being tracked in the Atlantic.
• ⚠️ Its slow movement means it will be discussed for an extended period, but current computer models show it fading rather than developing.

Factors Inhibiting Development

• 🏜️ Significant dry air is present in and around the system, mixing with and inhibiting convection.
• 💨 Saharan dust is also working its way into the Atlantic, further plaguing the system.
• 🌊 The disturbance is not moving quickly enough to take advantage of warmer ocean waters, which could aid development.

Forecast Uncertainty

• 📊 Computer models, including the GFS ensembles, show high uncertainty with runs scattered widely, indicating the system could fall apart.
• 📉 Peak wind gusts have decreased significantly from earlier projections, now estimated around 30-35 mph.
• 📅 Even by Wednesday of the following week, the system is just reaching some islands, indicating a long way off from significant development.

Model Comparisons

• 🛰️ The GFS model shows some weak development, while the European and European AI models are not showing any system at all.
• 🗺️ Some models trend towards the north, while others, like the Fox model, trend south, keeping the system limited.

Outlook

• ⏳ The system's development is highly dependent on how the dry air and sea surface temperatures play out over the next several days.
• 📈 Continued close monitoring is necessary to determine if Invest 91L will become a tropical depression, tropical storm, or dissipate entirely.