Igor Novikov on Trump-Putin Meeting, Tomahawk Missiles, and Ukraine Strategy

Trump-Zelensky Meeting Dynamics

• 💡 The meeting between Trump and Zelensky was not easy, with reports of a shouting match, though the extent of dramatism is often amplified by the media.
• 🎯 A key concern is Putin's perceived influence over Trump, but the meetings are clarifying Trump's negotiation approach of exerting pressure on both sides.
• 📌 Trump's reported suggestion for Ukraine to surrender the Donbas region was denied, with his team stating it should be "cut up" instead, a point also seen as potentially over-dramatized.

Tomahawk Missiles for Ukraine

• 🚀 The potential delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine is significant due to its symbolic impact on Putin, rather than solely for striking deep into Russia.
• ⚠️ Launching a Tomahawk at Russia, even the Moscow region, would place Putin in a similar position to Saddam Hussein, making the conflict appear as a war with a broader coalition.
• 🔑 This symbolic act could be Putin's "Achilles' heel," forcing a response and putting him in a difficult position with the Russian public.
• 📈 The provision of Tomahawks is viewed as a potential three-stage operation, contingent on Russia's actions, with Trump being a possible catalyst for their delivery.

Escalation and Negotiation Strategies

• ⚡ The war is unlikely to end without significant escalation, as Putin currently faces insufficient pushback from the West.
• 🧠 Russia's doctrine of "escalate to de-escalate" involves increasing tensions to improve their negotiating position, a strategy that the West should potentially mirror.
• 🎯 Tomahawk missiles are suggested as a means for the West to employ a similar "escalate to de-escalate" tactic against Putin.

Future of Trump-Putin Meetings

• 🧩 The upcoming meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin is significant, but its success hinges on productive outcomes, similar to the hopes placed on the previous Alaska meeting.
• ⚠️ There's a high likelihood that Putin will attempt to persuade Trump to abandon Ukraine and warn against escalation leading to World War III.
• 🔍 The invitation of Zelensky to the Budapest meeting remains uncertain and will likely be determined in the coming week.
• 📊 Russia's actions in the next 10 days, such as continued strikes on energy infrastructure, will indicate if the current diplomatic efforts are merely a delay tactic.