Ian Dunt on US "Self-Sanctioning" Parallels to Brexit and Empire's End

Brexit as a "Training Ground"

• 🇬🇧 Ian Dunt argues that the UK's Brexit experience served as a "training ground" for the US, enabling similar self-destructive patterns under Trump.
• 💡 While initially seen as less structural, Trump's damage is now considered structural, mirroring the tedious but deep impact of Brexit on the UK's core.

Economic and Structural Damage

• 📉 The current US economic situation, with declines in treasuries and the dollar alongside the stock market, is likened to the signs of an empire coming to an end.
• 🧠 Dunt invokes Gore Vidal's "United States of Amnesia" to suggest a lack of learning from past mistakes, leading to repeated self-inflicted wounds.
• 💸 The concept of "self-sanctioning" through tariffs is compared to Brexit's economic impact, with a focus on the bond market's reaction.

Liz Truss and Market Vibes

• 📉 The Liz Truss mini-budget is cited as an example of how irrationality and "vibes" can destabilize the bond market, even with underlying rational economic arguments.
• 🩹 The lasting scar on economic policy options, even after the initial shock, is a key takeaway from the UK's experience.

Trump's Impact and Global Repercussions

• 🤡 The analysis of Trump focuses on his demonstrable idiocy rather than complex strategy, a point often overlooked by those seeking intellectual structure.
• 🌍 The world, particularly Europe, is increasingly affected by US political instability, leading to a re-evaluation of the post-WWII world order and a push for European defense independence.
• 🇺🇸 The shift in global perception of Americans from friendly to resentful and threatening is highlighted as a significant consequence.

The Future of the Dollar and US Hegemony

• 🏦 The potential for the Euro to become a global reserve currency is discussed as a consequence of the US squandering its soft power and stability.
• 📉 The US is increasingly viewed as an emerging market in political terms, characterized by volatility and unpredictability, which deters investors.
• ⚖️ Concerns are raised about the collapse of the rule of law and the rise of an oligarchic capture, drawing parallels to post-Soviet Russia.