Ian Bremmer on Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire, Trump's Diplomacy, and China Relations

Russia-China Diplomacy and Ceasefire Obstacles

• 💬 Engagement between the US and China is occurring at high levels during IMF meetings, despite a lack of direct bilateral meetings, allowing both sides to spin the narrative.
• 🇷🇺 In contrast, Russia is a different story, with Putin currently not accepting a ceasefire.
• 🇺🇦 Donald Trump's approach to achieving a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire has primarily used the 'stick' against Ukraine while offering a 'carrot' to Russia, which has proven ineffective.

Trump's Diplomatic Strategy and Potential Consequences

• ⚠️ Trump faces a decision: walk away and blame both sides, or become impatient and impose consequences on Russia.
• 🚫 If there are no explicit 'or else' consequences for Russia, Trump is likely to back away from the deal and potentially withdraw support for Ukraine.
• 🇪🇺 This scenario might not be the worst for Europeans or Ukrainians, who would continue reconstruction support.

Credible Consequences and Ceasefire Prospects

• 🎯 For any 'or else' to be credible, it must involve sufficient consequences that Putin would take seriously.
• 📉 Currently, the situation is far from that point, and no one involved believes a ceasefire agreement is nearing.
• 🏦 The discussion also touches upon the dollar's reserve status and its use in international sanctions against Russia, with potential backing down on sanctions in hopes of a deal.