How Will the Next Dalai Lama Be Chosen? | Inside Story

The Dalai Lama's Succession Challenge

• 💡 The 14th Dalai Lama, nearing 90, has confirmed the institution will continue, ending speculation he might be the last.
• 📌 He plans for a foundation to recognize his successor after his death, potentially from his followers in India or even a woman.
• ⚠️ This sensitive issue involves a complex balance of religion, regional politics, and sovereignty.

China's Stance and Historical Claims

• 🇨🇳 China insists on having the final say in the selection, viewing the Dalai Lama as a separatist and seeking a "tame" leader.
• 📜 Beijing cites a 1793 Qing dynasty tradition involving a "golden urn" as historical precedent for state involvement in the selection.
• 🚨 Critics highlight the absurdity of an atheist Communist Party controlling a religious reincarnation, especially as the China Buddhist Association is a wing of the United Front Work Department.

Geopolitical Implications

• 🌍 Tibet's strategic importance as a high plateau, source of major rivers, and military buffer makes the succession a non-negotiable for China.
• 🇮🇳 India hosts a large Tibetan exile community and sees the Dalai Lama as crucial for stabilizing its border region with China, with India's minister stating the Dalai Lama should decide his successor.
• 🇺🇸 The US supports the Dalai Lama's right to determine his reincarnation, historically having funded Tibetan resistance, though its current approach is debated.

Prospect of Two Rival Dalai Lamas

• ⚔️ A likely scenario is the emergence of two rival Dalai Lamas: one chosen by the current Dalai Lama's followers and another appointed by Beijing.
• 📉 China faces a credibility problem in appointing a religious leader, as it lacks theological authority and has a history of suppressing religion.
• 🔥 Such a division could lead to instability for China and increased tensions with India and Western nations, with Tibetans inside Tibet having no free voice.