How I Returned 95% in 2025 (Portfolio Strategy and Update) | Ep. 1
[HPP] Seth KlarmanJanuary 7, 202610 min
14 connectionsΒ·22 entities in this videoβπ 2025 Portfolio Performance
- π The investor achieved an impressive 95% return in 2025, significantly outperforming the market.
- π This performance compares to the S&P's 23% and QQQ's 30% returns, demonstrating approximately 70% outperformance.
- π‘ The video aims to share the strategy and process that contributed to this early success, acknowledging it's not yet long-term outperformance.
π§ Combating Cognitive Biases
- π‘ A core part of the strategy involves combating cognitive biases like confirmation bias and anchoring bias.
- π The investor references Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow" and insights from legendary investor Seth Klarman on human psychology in investing.
- π― The goal is to invert thinking and actively poke holes in one's own investment thesis to avoid common psychological pitfalls.
π οΈ Investment Process & Tools
- π The investor utilizes Obsidian as a knowledge management system to organize notes, investment philosophy, and thesis.
- π This "second brain" serves as a friction point against biases, helping to track knowledge and cross-reference ideas.
- β A checklist is used to ensure financial health, understand the business, and build high conviction before making investments.
π° Current Portfolio Holdings
- π The portfolio is primarily concentrated in Google, considered a core long-term holding due to its valuation and potential as an AI boom beneficiary.
- π³ A more recent investment is in Mastercard, chosen for its wide economic moat and relative cheapness after being flat in 2025.
- β οΈ The investor acknowledges the concentration risk but emphasizes investing in high-quality compounders and not being anchored to past successes.
π‘οΈ Core Investment Principles
- π Margin of safety is a key value investing principle, focusing on buying assets at a discount with conservative assumptions.
- π° Identifying strong economic moats is crucial for long-term business survival, pricing power, and protection from competition.
- π€ Management alignment and efficient capital allocation (e.g., Return on Invested Capital) are vital for shareholder value creation.
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22 entities
Chapters6 moments
Key Moments
Transcript41 segments
Full Transcript
Topics15 themes
Whatβs Discussed
Portfolio StrategyInvestment PhilosophyCognitive BiasesBehavioral EconomicsValue InvestingEconomic MoatsMargin of SafetyCapital AllocationOutperformanceKnowledge ManagementDownside ProtectionLong-term InvestingPricing PowerManagement AlignmentInvestment Thesis
Smart Objects22 Β· 14 links
PeopleΒ· 5
CompaniesΒ· 4
EventΒ· 1
ConceptsΒ· 11
MediaΒ· 1