How Different Countries Execute Covert Action

Defining Covert Action: Beyond Deniability

• 💡 The traditional US definition of covert action focuses on influencing political, economic, or military conditions abroad where the US government's role is not publicly acknowledged.
• 🔑 The book "Covert Action" proposes a broader definition: politically motivated and unacknowledged interference by states or state-related entities in the affairs of others, designed to influence conditions favorably.
• 🎯 This broader scope emphasizes "unacknowledged" over "deniable", allowing for the inclusion of actions that are implausibly deniable, such as alleged Russian poisonings, which still serve a covert purpose.

Evolving Approaches: US, UK, and Historical Contexts

• 🇺🇸 The US approach shifted significantly post-9/11, moving from legislative constraints to a more aggressive stance, viewing covert action as a tool for deterrence and even vengeance, with public announcements blurring traditional secrecy.
• 🇬🇧 The UK utilizes covert action as a coping mechanism for its declining empire, with MI6 acting as the "last penumbra of her empire" to bridge the gap between global aspirations and diminishing military/economic power.
• 📜 Historical political culture shapes state approaches; for example, Brazil and West Germany showed reluctance towards covert action after periods of authoritarian repression, associating it with oppression.

Diverse State Strategies: Israel, India, and South Africa

• 🇮🇱 Israel's Mossad employs an aggressive approach driven by an existential threat, utilizing strategic ambiguity, red lines, and targeted killings for psychological impact, often working pragmatically with adversaries.
• 🇮🇳 India's covert actions have evolved from post-independence caution to a more muscular and confident regional posture, as seen in alleged assassinations and competition with Pakistan.
• 🇿🇦 Apartheid South Africa's covert operations were characterized by extreme brutality, a lack of government control, and widespread violence, blurring lines between state action and criminal enterprise, leading to internal chaos.

Authoritarian Tactics and the Gig Economy

• 🇨🇳 China's influence operations often work through diaspora communities, blurring the lines between legitimate lobbying and coercive interference, without a direct equivalent term for "covert action."
• 🇷🇺 Russia's intelligence services are described as "feral," engaging in widespread activity, often employing a "gig economy" approach to recruitment, hiring untrained individuals for sabotage who may not even know they are working for Russia.
• 🛠️ This gig economy model allows for cheap, disposable operatives with no allegiances, making it difficult to trace and increasing the chaotic nature of covert operations.

The Future of Covert Action: Chaos and Non-State Actors

• 📈 The future will see more states engaging in covert action, leading to increased chaos, noise, and intensity, supercharged by technology and interconnectedness.
• ⚠️ The character of conflict is shifting towards "dirty warfare" and gray zone operations, moving beyond traditional kinetic warfare.
• 👥 There will be an increasing reliance on non-state actors like criminal organizations, paramilitary groups, and private security companies, who are motivated by money and power rather than ideology, making the landscape more dangerous.