Harry Enten: Trump's Tariffs Are a Political Loser as Recession Fears Grow

Public Opinion on Tariffs

• 📉 Americans overwhelmingly oppose tariffs, with opposition rising and favorability declining.
• ⚠️ In January, 48% favored tariffs and 46% opposed; by April, this shifted to 54% opposing and 42% favoring.
• 📢 This indicates that tariffs are a political loser for Donald Trump, who is losing the messaging battle.

Economic Impact and Recession Fears

• 📈 Global markets are experiencing losses due to retaliatory tariffs, with Americans facing potentially higher prices.
• 📊 Recession chances have significantly increased, with JP Morgan's forecast rising from 40% to 60% and Goldman Sachs' from 20% to 45%.
• ⚠️ Experts suggest a 50/50 chance of recession, with Wall Street's instability likely to spill into Main Street.

Political Ramifications for Trump

• 📉 Donald Trump's economic approval rating has plummeted from +5 points in April 2017 to -12 points, becoming a significant weakness.
• ⚠️ The decline in economic approval has led to a fall in his overall approval rating, potentially impacting his political career.

Strategic Messaging and Trade Policy

• 🗣️ Critics argue that the substance of the tariff policy, not the messaging, is the core problem, likening it to the Titanic's iceberg issue.
• 🏛️ There's a growing movement among Democrats and some Republicans to reclaim Congress's constitutional power over tariffs.
• 💰 Some Republican strategists acknowledge that while free trade has negative impacts, President Trump needs to be more strategic and communicate the plan to the base and investors.
• 🤝 The White House is criticized for not yet announcing any trade deals, despite claims of 70 countries seeking negotiation, and for undermining existing agreements like USMCA.